Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 153.461425 178.922232 208.424881 245.408329 290.908566 345.551414 416.889812
2025-11-16 117.761300 147.879377 186.243842 239.594442 313.324175 413.877733 565.460478
2025-11-23 96.746032 127.892275 170.300160 233.906187 329.891532 474.614159 720.431692
2025-11-30 88.557908 122.449607 171.406098 250.077895 379.042318 593.483556 1004.909906
2025-12-07 79.207676 113.374104 165.052075 252.791098 406.706958 684.737839 1278.777315
2025-12-14 72.525134 107.030978 161.411853 258.481214 439.876061 794.665600 1638.774019
2025-12-21 65.939016 99.800891 155.027140 257.884224 460.917043 887.159596 2007.332067
2025-12-28 63.423242 98.703673 158.477667 275.284180 520.909303 1081.781895 2748.737269
2026-01-04 60.532670 96.539665 159.640487 288.409498 575.449040 1285.312138 3669.143064
2026-01-11 57.566562 93.838742 159.366846 298.493878 625.958204 1500.174829 4818.447542
2026-01-18 54.330021 90.257574 156.909036 303.472399 665.778547 1703.969086 6140.107087
2026-01-25 50.968143 86.071343 152.714487 303.855596 694.244375 1887.931852 7600.158540
2026-02-01 47.109904 80.703941 145.789802 297.506558 705.210796 2028.750233 9089.803108
2026-02-08 43.665739 75.806788 139.269718 291.084134 714.799297 2173.142329 10862.167375
2026-02-15 40.556190 71.260471 132.938522 284.023181 720.778765 2309.531455 12863.044330
2026-02-22 40.054671 71.795335 137.408846 304.686244 818.265211 2877.677290 19626.845473
2026-03-01 38.228641 69.474265 135.367388 308.162609 862.149695 3249.845004 26036.164283
2026-03-08 36.826889 67.889717 134.773271 315.446948 922.117671 3752.442258 36302.727048
2026-03-15 35.005736 65.262304 131.489990 314.682655 953.322423 4135.741841 47302.532845
2026-03-22 34.737274 65.908588 135.922240 337.010934 1081.814186 5223.783975 80885.292393
2026-03-29 34.111024 65.714720 138.319099 353.912522 1197.375686 6396.778541 135858.209081
2026-04-05 33.287532 65.005847 139.362250 366.931445 1303.446583 7674.543003 228324.993856
2026-04-12 32.183409 63.567285 138.399391 373.369108 1383.455820 8885.843531 369365.996104